Bounces

Bounces

The Five-and-a-Half Year Ceiling

On the historically hard barrier which Naomi Osaka crashed into at the U.S. Open.

Ben Rothenberg's avatar
Ben Rothenberg
Sep 08, 2026
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NEW YORK — Elena Rybakina moved within one match win of the WTA No. 1 ranking on Monday with a comprehensive 6-1, 6-4 win over Naomi Osaka in the fourth round of the U.S. Open.

If she can beat Zheng Qinwen in her quarterfinal match on Wednesday, Rybakina will become the 30th player to hold the No. 1 singles ranking in WTA history, and only the fourth player in the last seven years after Ash Barty, Iga Swiatek, and Aryna Sabalenka.

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But though Rybakina’s rankings quest is a big plotline for the rest of this U.S. Open, I was more intrigued by Osaka’s loss, a result which ensured that one of the most stubborn records across men’s and women’s tennis, nearly a half-century old, will persist into 2027.

Naomi Osaka on Monday at the U.S. Open. (Photo by Cal Sport Media)

To read about this barrier which major champions are consistently hitting up against, please subscribe to Bounces! There’s only a week left in the 15 percent off deal during the U.S. Open, so don’t delay! —Ben

15% Off During US Open!

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