When the Stars Align
After parallel journeys for the last four years, Emma Raducanu and Naomi Osaka will finally play one another for the first time.
WASHINGTON — One of the most common laments about this past eight years or so in women’s tennis—I think the start can be neatly backdated to when Serena Williams went on pregnancy and maternity leave in 2017—is about star-crossed fortunes atop the game. In other words: too often in women’s tennis, unfortunately the stars don’t cross.
Two of the clearest examples: Naomi Osaka and Ash Barty continuously occupied the No. 1 ranking back and forth from January 2019 to March 2022. But despite that duopoly, they only played against each other one time (the 2019 Beijing final, won by Osaka) in that span of more than three years.
In more recent years, six-time major champ Iga Swiatek and three-time major champ Aryna Sabalenka have been the two most dominant players since the pandemic began, but they have yet to consecrate their rivalry at the sport’s highest altar: the final of a Grand Slam event. There have been several near misses, but an ultimate climactic showdown is yet to come for what could’ve been a true top-line rivalry.
In contrast to how the Alcaraz-Sinner rivalry is creating a dominant narrative in men’s tennis with meetings in back-to-back Slam finals, this lack of reliable rendezvouses can leave the women’s side feeling comparatively directionless in terms of storylines.
But on Thursday in Washington, there’s a second round match that finally brings together two players who, if not holders of the highest rankings, are undeniably two of of the biggest names in the sport: Naomi Osaka and Emma Raducanu.
Their convergence has become apparent in recent years after having little in common this time four years ago, when each won her most recent Grand Slam title.
There were big differences in what they had done before those most recent major wins—Osaka was a 23-year-old former No. 1 who had already won three other majors when she notched the 2021 Australian Open title; Raducanu was an 18-year-old qualifier ranked outside the Top 100 when she won the 2021 U.S. Open. But as I started looking at their profiles ahead of this first-ever match between the two of them, I was more struck by their current similarities, both competitively and commercially.
Naomi Osaka is ranked 51st; Raducanu is ranked slightly ahead at 46th. Neither has won any tour-level title since winning a Grand Slam event in 2021. Both have 2.8 million Instagram followers.
Because they have both missed considerable time from the tour—for different reasons—their rankings have largely occupied similar neighborhoods. They have nearly the same number of wins since those big triumphs in 2021: since her 2021 Australian Open win, Osaka is 64-43; since her 2021 U.S. Open win, Raducanu is 65-54.
In the four years since, neither has reached even another major quarterfinal. But even as their rankings fluctuated wildly, the two have remained high in the tennis consciousness and even higher in the lists of top earners among female athletes worldwide. In Sportico’s 2024 chart of estimated earnings for female athletes, Osaka and Raducanu were ranked sixth and seventh, respectively, with off-court endorsement earnings that dwarfed their prize money checks.
A few more things to rattle off that unite Osaka and Raducanu: both have multicultural backgrounds. Both are big enough stars that they’re nearly guaranteed wildcard entries into the U.S. Open’s mixed doubles shindig next month. Both have struggled with very different types of unwanted attention. At different stages, both pulled out of 2021 Wimbledon for reasons related to stress and mental health.
But until the luck of the draw pulled them together as possible second round opponents in Washington—and they each won a first round match to book a meeting—their parallel paths had never converged onto the same court.
The two have not only never played, Raducanu told me with a shake of her head that they have never even spoken to one another.
I asked Raducanu if it would be nice to be able to get to know someone she might have a lot in common with.
“I think when we're on the tour, it's very difficult to really open up with other players that you're competing against,” Raducanu said. “I have a few friends on the tour, but it does add another dimension when you play them. I have really good friends at home that I can trust and speak to, but other than that…for me, I just find it harder to compete against a person I'm friends with.”
Raducanu said the upcoming marquee match felt a bit similar to playing top-ranked Aryna Sabalenka recently at Wimbledon, which she called an “unbeatable” atmosphere.
“I seem to really thrive and enjoy that moment,” Raducanu said. “I'm looking forward to playing Naomi, and I think all the exposure I get to these top opponents—she's won four Grand Slams, so an incredible achievement and incredible career so far, and she's been playing really good tennis this year. Yeah, it will be a great test of my own game and myself.”
I asked what similarities or differences Raducanu saw between herself and Osaka, and she gave a lengthy reply.
“Yeah, I think, you know, different,” Raducanu said. “Because, again, when I won my U.S. Open, I came from school, I was no one, I was 200 in the world. Naomi [when she won her first U.S. Open in 2018] had already won Indian Wells. She was already a known figure on the tour, and people kind of expected, OK, like, she's going to start doing well and start winning slams.
“Whereas I think when I won, it was completely out of nowhere,” Raducanu continued. “It means that I didn't quite build the foundations she had when she won her Grand Slams, which I think is why she was able to repeat and win another three, [twice] back-to-back US Open and Australia.
“She was an established, like, pro tour player, whereas I didn't necessarily feel that way. It's probably why I had a lot more dips afterwards.
“But yeah, it's good to see the similarities now. I think we have both kind of started doing better and started enjoying the process more and enjoying developing. Yeah, I think it's nice that after, you know, having such big highs and then some lows to both be working towards, you know, going up again.”
I asked Raducanu if she felt like she built that “foundation” she mentioned in the few years.
“I don't think it's been built,” she said. “I still think I'm building it, but I feel positive because I'm actually building it in a consistent way. And I feel like…it's going towards having—you're never really fully complete—but a more complete foundation, and I'll be more solid and have a higher base level. I think I'm working towards that now. I think I'm just doing it in a better way. I'm a lot more content, more relaxed. I'm less kind of volatile, I guess, in general. I'm working in a really good way and just excited to kind of keep this and try and win as many days as I can.”
Osaka’s answers were considerably different when asked about Raducanu, though she began on a positive note.
“I've never played her before, so for me, that's something really cool, too,” Osaka said. “Because I have seen her—I guess when she first did well at Wimbledon before she won the U.S. Open, moments like that—and I knew she was a good player. So I guess for our paths to finally cross is really cool.”
When I asked Osaka a similar question to the one I had asked Raducanu, about similarities and differences between them—admittedly asked in a bit of a rambly way—she took more umbrage than I anticipated, making a face when she seemed to think I was equating their careers.
Ben Rothenberg, Bounces: On Raducanu, what sort of similarities you might see in your trajectories? You've been around a little bit longer than she had when she won her first Grand Slam, but you both kind of got shot to stardom by these U.S. Open wins. What have you made about her journey and struggles once you win your first slam and stuff like that? Do you see some similarities or differences in your overall arcs with her?
NAOMI OSAKA: I won my second slam after I won my first slam.
Ben Rothenberg, Bounces: I know, right away. But I'm just saying in terms of sudden fame and celebrity, maybe even more than that.
NAOMI OSAKA: I mean, honestly, I feel like for her, it must be really tough, because I read online, like, she had a stalker. I don't know if it's allowed to say out loud. I don't really know. I saw in Dubai or something there was. Honestly, I really feel sad for her, because that video was, like, one of the most saddest videos I've ever seen.
And I just hope she has a lot of really good people around her. I think that there must be a lot of pressure from—I don't know how British media is, but they don't really seem the kindest. I think she's navigating it really well.
Maybe it won’t happen any time soon, but I do think it would be really interesting if these two could meet outside of a match court, too.
The winner of the Osaka-Raducanu match will face Maria Sakkari, who now lives in Washington D.C. and said this has felt like the closest thing she’s ever had to a home tournament.
Sakkari said the match was “going to be interesting” before discussing the form of each. “They are both playing good,” Sakkari said. “Emma obviously had a great run in Wimbledon. She's been playing really well. But I feel like Naomi is also getting up there.”
Sakkari said she approached Osaka in Rome after Osaka had done something Raducanu hasn’t yet: stepping down a tier and entering a WTA 125 tournament in Saint-Malo, taking the risk to her ego of scaling down a level in order to get matches. Osaka won the tournament, her first title at any level since that Australian Open win four years ago.
“That, for me, was great,” Sakkari said. “I respected her before, but after that, like, I had massive respect. Because not a lot of Grand Slam champions and superstars like she is would do something like that. I feel like that would really help her to come back to the top, and I just feel like she's been playing great tennis and it's going to come. I said it from my heart and I believe it. It was amazing. Conditions are not great and it's a 125, and it's not great, but that shows a lot of strength and a lot of mental strength.”
Thanks for reading Bounces! -Ben
“I won my second slam after I won my first slam.” That’s good. Some will call that throwing shade, but one thing I like about Osaka is that she’s like a tennis truth patrol sometimes, in either direction. I’ve heard her asked about how she left the game while at the top, and she correctly points out that she was not at the top of the game when she left to have a baby.